3/8/18: ACC Tournament Write-up

Daytime action in the ACC Tournament with the #1 ranked Virginia Cavaliers squaring off against the #9 seed Louisville Cardinal in the rematch of the thriller in Louisville that saw the Cards squander a 4 point lead in less than one second. In our second match, we have the upstart #12 Boston College Eagles led by the sensational Jerome Robinson facing off against the #4 Clemson Tigers, well-rested on the double bye. Our analysts break down these match-ups to see which side you should be on.

Louisville Cardinals (20-12) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (-6.5) – O/U 122.5

Early one-sided action on Louisville has pushed this line down from an opening of 7.5 to 6.5 point. Virginia has been a stellar team ATS this season going 18-8-1 while Louisville has also turned in a respectable 15-13-2 ATS record. While Virginia has struggled in covering spreads recently, we like a rested Virginia to cover the 6.5 pt spread, especially after dodging an injury scare with guard Kyle Guy expected to play. We feel Louisville may have trouble turning in the same kind of performance that had them on the verge of upending Virginia in the KFC Yum Center, shooting a very high percentage from three on tough contested looks; Virginia beat this Louisville team by 10 in Charlottesville earlier in the season. We would recommend holding off to look for further movement but feel comfortable with this line moving below a key number at 7 points. This is also a candidate to include in parlays with the Virginia ML; we could also see a tight game early so UVA on the 2nd half spread could be in play if they are in a close battle or down at the break.

Boston College Eagles vs. Clemson Tigers (-4) – O/U 139

Despite roughly 2/3 of tickets coming in on Clemson, this line has moved from -4.5 to -4, indicating sharp action on the upset-minded BC Eagles. If you look to the completed Big 10 Tournament, we have seen somewhat of a trend of teams with momentum coming in and giving teams on bye a tough game. We think this may be especially likely with a Clemson team that has struggled a bit after a hot start in ACC play; they have now lost 4 of their last 6 games. When these two teams met in January, BC lost by 4 points at home. Look for Jerome Robinson to keep this BC team in it until the bitter end and potentially pull the upset—stellar guard play is critical this time of year and BC has one of the best.

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